SWODY2
SPC AC 061730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...
...CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY
AS A WELL-DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A SFC
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS SE CO AND SW KS WITH A TONGUE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING WWD AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
ACROSS NRN KS INTO FAR SRN NEB. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW BUT CAPPING
AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT MAY ALSO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE NAM SOLUTION DEVELOPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF WRN
KS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPING IN SW NEB
DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AIRMASS CAPPED ACROSS WRN KS
THROUGH THE EVENING SUGGESTING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
TOMORROWS SCENARIO. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WRN KS BY EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE CO EWD ACROSS SRN NEB INTO SRN
IA AND NRN MO DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING.
ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN WCNTRL KS AT 00Z TUESDAY SHOW EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 4500 TO 5000 J/KG AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F. THIS ALONG WITH 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF STORMS CAN INITIATE
IN THE WARM ENVIRONMENT DUE TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. INVERTED-V
PROFILES AND HOT SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS
WITH STORMS THAT INITIATE. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORM
INITIATION SHOULD EXIST FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE NEB-KS STATE-LINE
WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
GREATER WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL JET. THIS ENVIRONMENT
ALONG WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS.
HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS SHOULD ALSO CONTAIN LARGE HAIL DUE TO VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO
OCCUR...LCL HEIGHT ABOVE 1500 METERS SHOULD CONFINE THE THREAT. IF
AN MCS CAN DEVELOP...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE
EVENING AND PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
NEB INTO SW IA AND NW MO.
..BROYLES.. 06/06/2010
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