SWODY2
SPC AC 081730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. UPPER TROUGH
NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...OH
VALLEY...NERN STATES AND MID ATLANTIC. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM
THE LOW WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. FARTHER UPSTREAM
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. WRN EXTENSION OF OH VALLEY COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NWD AS A
WARM FRONT AS A LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA...
STORMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH OTHER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF A WARM FRONT SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC AREA. SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY EXIST WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING ON AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A STRONG SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL HAVE ADVECTED RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID-UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THOUGH POCKETS OF
DIABATIC HEATING ARE LIKELY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD ADVANCING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STORMS OVER THE OH VALLEY
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER
FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BOWING STRUCTURES WITH DAMAGING
WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT.
LARGEST 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NEAR RETREATING WARM FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH EWD MIGRATING LOW
LEVEL JET. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...LIKELIHOOD OF MORE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND POTENTIALLY SERVE
AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AREA...
ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN POST FRONTAL ZONE AND EAST OF DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWWD THETA-E ADVECTION BENEATH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FROM ERN CO NWD INTO SERN
WY AND WRN NEB/WRN KS. THOUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE
DAY...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE UPSLOPE
REGIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL LATER IN THE
EVENING.
OTHER MORE ELEVATED STORMS COULD ALSO FORM OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
WITHIN THE ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AUGMENTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
...CNTRL MT...
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP LAYER ASCENT ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
..DIAL.. 06/08/2010
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