SWODY2
SPC AC 091724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2010
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS INTO A SMALL PART OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN U.S. COAST IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES EWD. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MS AND OH VALLEYS IN WAKE OF UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD DURING THE DAY. CUTOFF LOW OVER ERN TX WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH WRN SD AND NEB. A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM A SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN KS OR SWRN NEB.
...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AREA...
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT
NWD ALONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT EML PLUME
WITH 8 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES EWD ABOVE MOIST AXIS RESULTING IN
A RESERVOIR OF 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE FROM KS NWD INTO NEB AND SD.
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH WRN SD AND WRN NEB AS AN UPPER
JET STREAK EJECTS NEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF ERN NEB INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY. A CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML WILL LIMIT SURFACE BASED STORMS UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG SEWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALONG AND NORTH OF E-W BAROCLINIC
ZONE THAT WILL BE REINFORCED BY MORNING CONVECTION. OTHER STORMS
COULD SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE WY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD BE ENHANCED BY ELY-NELY FLOW NORTH OF LEE SURFACE LOW. MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NWRN KS ALONG
DRYLINE. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS NEB AND SD WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES AND CLUSTERS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AN MCS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SD AND NEB OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
...ERN TX THROUGH SERN STATES...
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AREAS OF DIABATIC WARMING WILL ONCE
AGAIN RESULT IN POCKETS MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER A LARGE PART OF
THE SERN STATES. WEAK CAP AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MULTICELL AND PULSE
STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL.
OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW AS IT
SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. BELT OF STRONGER 30-35 KT FLOW
ALOFT ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH NEWD MOVING CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
..DIAL.. 06/09/2010
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