SWODY2
SPC AC 201729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE N
CENTRAL U.S. FROM THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS PERIOD...WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST...BELT OF ENHANCED WLY FLOW ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...AND A RIDGE OVER
THE S CENTRAL AND SERN STATES. TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
WILL SLOWLY DEPART...WHILE A SMALLER-SCALE VORT MAX WITHIN THE
LARGER WRN TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS MT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MT AND
SEWD ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- TO AROUND 50 KT
AT MID LEVELS -- SUGGESTS INTENSIFYING/SUPERCELL STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. EVENTUALLY...LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO CONGEAL
INTO AN MCS -- SHIFTING EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH INITIAL/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE MCS DEVELOPS/SHIFTS EWD.
...CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES...
ONGOING CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...NEAR AND N OF
THE WEAK W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS KS AND THE MID MO VALLEY REGION.
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AWAY FROM ONGOING STORMS/COLD POOLS WILL LEAD
TO MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...AND ANOTHER EPISODE OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASINGLY INTO THE EVENING AS A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
REDEVELOPS. GIVEN MODERATE WLYS ALOFT...EWD-MOVING MCS DEVELOPMENT
IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.
...THE SOUTHEAST...
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST NEAR
AND S OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS
REGION SWWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK -- AND THUS LARGELY UNSUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED STORMS...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT PULSE-TYPE
STORMS/BRIEF SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY
EVENTUALLY ALLOW ONE OR TWO ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS --
DEVELOPING NEAR OUTFLOW/COLD POOL INTERACTIONS -- TO MOVE
WSWWD...ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
..GOSS.. 06/20/2010
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