SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011546
MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-011715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SE NY...CT...MA...RI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011546Z - 011715Z
A THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE AREA WILL BE
UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS
AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SE NY ALONG AN AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDS
EWD ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
MID 60S F. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE BOSTON WSR-88D VWP
ESTIMATES 40 KT OF FLOW AT 1 TO 2 KM AGL WHICH COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A SUPERCELL CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
ERN PART OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN
AREAS TO THE WEST.
..BROYLES.. 06/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 41527182 41227289 40987383 41177454 41517460 42057421
42357364 42717171 42417074 41777090 41527182
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