MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0857

ACUS11 KWNS 081857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081856
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-082100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS INTO NW/W CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081856Z - 082100Z

TIMING OF STORM INITIATION IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. BUT...THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A WW WILL BE ISSUED...PROBABLY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS ONGOING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR
EXTENDING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. ON THE NOSE OF THIS THERMAL RIDGE...
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
BECOMING VERY LARGE /3000-4000+ J/KG/...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BASED WITHIN VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
ADVECTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES HIGH PLAINS REGION. IN THE PRESENCE
OF MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-40+ KT WESTERLY 500
MB FLOW...THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN
EARLY STAGES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS THE TIMING OF THIS DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
THE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...BUT GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION
WRF/HRR...IS SUGGESTIVE THAT FORCING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD SUPPORT STORM INITIATION BY 20-21Z. ONCE THIS FINALLY
OCCURS...INTENSIFICATION MAY BE RAPID. ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER APPEARS QUITE LIKELY IN STRONGEST
CELLS. SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR A 30+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES ...PARTICULARLY AS
DISCRETE STORMS ENCOUNTER REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. THIS IS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
BE MAXIMIZED.

..KERR.. 06/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39039712 39539642 40059518 40299439 39839352 39379349
38649433 38299512 37919575 37589708 37959812 38479785
39039712

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