MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0867

ACUS11 KWNS 091615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091615
LAZ000-TXZ000-091745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 286...

VALID 091615Z - 091745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 286 CONTINUES.

THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A MODEST SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET /ON THE ORDER OF 30+ KT/ CONTINUES
ACROSS MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF A WEAK
MID/UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND THE
EVOLUTION OF GROWING SURFACE COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
LARGE STORM CLUSTER. THESE HAVE BEEN GENERALLY SLOWLY MOVING...BUT
ONE APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED EAST OF HUNTSVILLE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF
COLLEGE STATION...AS ANOTHER ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO SURGE A BIT MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
COLLEGE STATION. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR MAXIMIZED ON THE
STALLED PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW...AND THIS MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

OTHERWISE...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES...AND INFLOW OF MID/UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS... LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS PROBABLY WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN SLOW
MOVING/TRAINING STORMS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM
AHEAD OF ACTIVITY...AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS STRENGTHEN ...THE
TENDENCY MAY BE FOR CONVECTION TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX...SABINE VALLEY AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING.

..KERR.. 06/09/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 31679551 32599540 33229483 32509382 31379353 30759366
30299414 29439567 29369649 29439703 29849716 30859651
31679551

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.