MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0919

ACUS11 KWNS 131628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131627
VAZ000-NCZ000-131830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL NORTH CAROLINA AND SWRN/S CNTRL
VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131627Z - 131830Z

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL SEEMS LOW/MARGINAL...BUT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING/INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA/TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA. THIS MAY BE AIDED BY LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED
CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK TROUGH
MIGRATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THIS FORCING...AND A
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LIKELY THROUGH 18-20Z.

NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
KTS...WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE
RELATIVELY WARM. SO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL SEEMS QUITE LOW.
BUT...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO APPROACH AND EXCEED
90F...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AT LEAST MODEST
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER CELLS. EVENTUALLY...SURFACE COLD POOLS MAY
CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
GROWTH INTO A SMALL STORM CLUSTER...WITH MORE GENERAL PEAK WINDS
ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING GUST FRONT PERHAPS APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 06/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 36308135 36788065 37178001 36497850 35687899 35388028
35468065 35318125 35638229 36308135

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