SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141817
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-141915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0939
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN TX...SWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 141817Z - 141915Z
SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING
ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENS FROM NW TO SE EXTENT...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. PRIMARY
THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 19Z.
18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE OVER EXTREME SERN
NM...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO THE E/NE INTO WRN OK WHICH
INTERSECTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN OK. ATTENDANT DRYLINE WAS
DRAPED SWD THROUGH FAR WRN TX. TSTM COVERAGE HAS STEADILY INCREASED
ALONG THE FRONT...AND CU INCREASING ACROSS THE FAR WRN TX MTNS
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR BY 20-21Z. DESPITE
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR...MID-LEVEL SWLYS DROP OFF RAPIDLY FROM N TO S ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS /PER AREA PROFILERS/. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
AMIDST A LIKELY MULTICELL CLUSTER EVOLUTION. ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE
MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...THE MARGINALITY OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY MITIGATE A MORE ROBUST HAIL/TORNADO THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 06/14/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32370363 33510307 34820042 35429734 35159660 34349708
33509898 32280125 31110224 29790303 29730363 29980413
32370363
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