SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161720
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-161815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN OK...NWRN AR...SERN KS...SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161720Z - 161815Z
A MODESTLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL OK MAY INTENSIFY
AND GROW UPSCALE GIVEN PRESENCE OF A HIGHLY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR
MASS OVER ERN OK INTO AR. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1715Z...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAD PERSISTED OVER N-CNTRL OK. THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TIED TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
25-30 KT SPEED MAX PER AREA PROFILERS. DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION
HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK
INTO AR. MORNING HRRR RUNS SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH AND STORM-SCALE
CONSOLIDATION WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT FARTHER N THAN RECENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST.
IF THIS INDEED OCCURS...A GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
EXIST AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
FARTHER E...PULSE TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP GIVEN INCREASING
CU/CB FIELD OVER AR. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO
DISORGANIZED WITH ANY THREAT LIMITED TO LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS.
..GRAMS.. 06/16/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37379349 36259325 35309379 35239503 35219623 35509786
36039761 36809695 37519637 37709540 37379349
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