SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201533
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-201730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 201533Z - 201730Z
STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW STORMS BECOMING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR WW
ISSUANCE...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN NY INTO SERN QUEBEC WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FROM SERN NY NEWD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. DIABATIC
WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 2000 J/KG DUE TO MODEST /6
C/KM 700-500 MB/ LAPSE RATES. WEAK CAP AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH SRN QUEBEC IS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS NRN ME AS WELL AS
FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT AND IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. A
BELT OF 35-40 KT FLOW ALOFT ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO 30-35 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY BULK SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES WITH MULTICELL LINE
SEGMENTS...A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS AS WELL AS SOME DISCRETE CELLS WITH
MODEST UPDRAFT ROTATION.
..DIAL.. 06/20/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 43227062 41987106 41697221 42677311 44497253 45387054
47026932 47056812 46166790 44956814 44086962 43227062
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