SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201704
MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-201900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB THROUGH NERN KS AND NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 201704Z - 201900Z
STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN NEB MAY CONTINUE INTO NERN KS
AND NWRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WILL INITIALLY BE LARGE
HAIL...BUT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES COULD ALSO INCREASE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
AT MID-DAY AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN MO THEN
WNWWD THROUGH ERN AND N-CNTRL KS. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING
THIS BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MAINTENANCE OF
A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS SERN NEB. THE STORMS CURRENTLY ARE
ELEVATED ABOVE THE STABLE AIR NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...FULL SUN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND
RECOVERY NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. MOREOVER...A
RESERVOIR OF LARGE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EXISTS NORTH OF THE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES SHOULD
INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.
..DIAL.. 06/20/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 40699540 39989379 39379384 39259467 39629627 40229656
40699540
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