SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201859
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-202100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY INTO NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 201859Z - 202100Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON.
CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWED TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO NEAR LARAMIE TO NEAR DENVER. 18Z SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...RESULTING IN A MODERATELY TO
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG.
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
8 C/KM WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.
18Z RAOB FROM RAP INDICATED A WEAK CAP ALOFT WHICH SHOULD ERODE
QUICKLY WITH CONTINUED SFC HEATING. ROAB ALSO INDICATED BACKED SFC
FLOW AND AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 06/20/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...
LAT...LON 39940524 40770542 42020546 43150538 44570544 44920495
45030438 44940349 44540273 44030268 43030304 40930361
40350371 39920392 39800464 39940524
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