SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251657
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-251930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN AL...EXTREME SRN TN...NRN GA...WRN
SC...HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NC.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251657Z - 251930Z
TSTMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH REMAINDER DAY FROM NRN MS/WRN TN TO
GA/CAROLINAS -- INCLUDING AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR PER LATEST DAY-1
OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED POTENTIAL FOR MRGL SVR
MULTICELL/PULSE CONVECTION...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS...IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WHERE FRONTAL ZONE
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACT IN FAVORABLY MOIST/HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FROM
NC OUTER BANKS WSWWD NEAR FLO/AND...THEN EXTENDING NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS EXTREME NERN AL WNWWD OVER WRN TN NEAR DYR. FRONTAL ZONE
IMPINGES ON HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WRN SC ACROSS NRN GA/AL. LIGHT ELY
WIND COMPONENT PREVAILS ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY...RELATED
UPSLOPE FLOW AIDING ASCENT ALREADY OCCURRING FROM HEATING OF HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NC/SC. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM FIELD
OF TCU/EARLY-STAGE CB NOW EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY...FROM THAT REGION
SWWD ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND S OF FRONT OVER NRN AL. DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE WEAK AND WILL REMAIN SO.
HOWEVER...SVR THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED GIVEN
ABOVE-MENTIONED ANTECEDENT FOCI...WEAK CINH...SFC DEW POINTS 70S F
IN LOWER TERRAIN AND 60S OVER MOUNTAINS...MLCAPE IN 2000-3000 J/KG
RANGE...AND LIKELIHOOD OF EVENTUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLLISIONS TO
FURTHER CONCENTRATE POTENTIAL LOCALLY.
..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 35138637 35108509 35408395 36098194 36558145 36408050
35528167 34868265 34488126 33498137 33568549 33498775
34618806 35188751 35138637
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