SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251857
NDZ000-SDZ000-252100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SRN ND AND NRN SD.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251857Z - 252100Z
SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL EACH ANTICIPATED.
EARLIER/ISOLATED SVR TSTM OVER CENTRAL ND...THAT HAS PRODUCED
WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAKENED...MAY SERVE AS PRECURSOR
TO MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE/ZONAL BAROCLINIC GRADIENT --
REINFORCED ON WRN END BY OUTFLOW FROM RECENT TSTM -- LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG I-94 BETWEEN ERN ND BORDER AND BIS...TO MERCER COUNTY. TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM PRONOUNCED LOW OVER CENTRAL SD NWWD TO WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE LOW INVOF STARK/DUNN COUNTY LINE IN ND AND NNWWD OVER SERN
SASK...WITH LIGHT WLYS TO ITS W. MOIST/THERMAL AXES ARE NEARLY
JUXTAPOSED BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES OVER S-CENTRAL SD...WITH
MOIST AXIS EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NERN SD NEAR HON. VIS IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEPENING CU/TCU NEAR MOIST AXIS OVER PORTIONS
LOGAN/MCINTOSH/EMMONS COUNTIES ND. OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
INVOF/BETWEEN BOUNDARIES NWWD TO NEAR SFC LOW...WHERE WEAK MASS
CONVERGENCE MAX IS EVIDENT. COMBINATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
UPSTREAM...AND MOIST ADVECTION...WILL ACT IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
STG INSOLATION AND RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT TO YIELD MLCAPE
2000-2500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WEAK NEAR-SFC WINDS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH
SIZE...35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE WILL SUPPORT TSTM
ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSCALE GROWTH/CONCENTRATION OF
SVR OVER THIS AREA.
..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 46890353 47280318 47810288 47250114 46909998 46689840
46069790 45479844 45530053 45870211 46250283 46890353
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