MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1130

ACUS11 KWNS 261704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261704
MNZ000-SDZ000-261800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN SD...SWRN MN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261704Z - 261800Z

INITIALLY ISOLATED/ELEVATED TSTMS NEAR HON MAY CONTINUE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL...WHILE TURNING MORE ESEWD...POTENTIALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTRODUCING THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS FOR ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD TO SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER E-CENTRAL SD
CONVECTION...DRAWN ALONG ARC FROM ATY-MHE TO SRN TRIPP COUNTY. WRN
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS FCST TO DECELERATE NEAR NEB/SD BORDER.
HOWEVER...ERN PORTION MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD...DESPITE BECOMING
MORE SHALLOW...DUE TO ADDITIONAL NLY COMPONENT BEING FORCED
ISALLOBARICALLY ALONG W SIDE OF MESOLOW ANALYZED BETWEEN MHE...BKX
AND FSD. THIS IS SEPARATE AND DISTINCT FROM INITIAL/PRIMARY SFC
CYCLONE STILL EVIDENT NEAR PHP. QUASISTATIONARY SFC TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM MESOLOW WWD ACROSS ERN SD...JUST W OF I-29. FLOW E OF
THIS TROUGH IS MORE ELY AND STABLE. WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM
MESOLOW ESEWD ACROSS SWRN MN TO IA BORDER JUST S SW FRM...AND SHOULD
DRIFT NWD. RECENT RIGHTWARD TURN OF HON-AREA CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE GIVEN DIFFERENTIAL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ALONG AND S OF
WARM FRONT...AND STABLE AIR HOLDING IN PLACE E OF INVERTED TROUGH.
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING SFC HEATING...AND DEW POINTS
70S F WILL BOOST MLCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG NEAR LOW AND S OF WARM
FRONT...WHILE GRADUALLY REMOVING MLCINH. 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES SUPPORT RISK FOR SUPERCELL STORM MODE. SHOULD EXISTING
CONVECTION IMPINGE ON THIS AIR MASS AND/OR DEVELOP FARTHER SWD NEAR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADOES
MAY BEGIN EARLY AND WW WOULD BE REQUIRED SOONER...RATHER THAN
HOLDING TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY
ALONG/E OF TROUGH AND N OF WARM FRONT.

..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 43229912 43829847 44459830 44829728 44699561 44289531
43909561 43259726 43039870 43229912

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.