MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1134

ACUS11 KWNS 261927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261926
NDZ000-262030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ND.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261926Z - 262030Z

SVR POTENTIAL IS INCREASING IN POCKET OF MOIST...DIABATICALLY
HEATED/DESTABILIZED AIR...LOCATED AHEAD OF CURRENTLY NON-SVR TSTM
CLUSTER MOVING ENEWD ABOUT 35 KT ACROSS CENTRAL ND. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY...POST-FRONTAL TSTMS OVER NWRN
AND FAR N-CENTRAL ND MAY POSE RISK FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL.

19Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW OVER
EXTREME SERN SASK...SWD NEAR WRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COVERING
PORTIONS MCLEAN/MORTON/OLIVER/MERCER COUNTIES...TO WRN BLACK HILLS.
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD 10-15 KT ACROSS REGION.
QUASISTATIONARY/PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE IS EVIDENT FROM CAVALIER
COUNTY SWWD ACROSS DVL AREA TO EMMONS COUNTY. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS
THICK PLUME OF CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP EVIDENT ON RADAR...GENERALLY
E OF CONFLUENCE LINE AND S OF I-94...PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION OVER SERN ND AND ACTING AS SRN BOUND FOR APPRECIABLE
SVR THREAT.

ATTM CONVECTIVE MODE ATTM REMAINS RATHER MESSY/DISORGANIZED IN
REGIME OF VEERED SFC WINDS...W OF CONFLUENCE LINE.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY EXPAND AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES EWD INTO MORE BACKED SFC WINDS...STRONGER STORM-RELATIVE SFC
FLOW AND HIGHER LOW-LEVEL SRH ALONG/E OF CONFLUENCE LINE. BOW
ECHOES ARE POSSIBLE...AND ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE SUPERCELL THAT MAY
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND STEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT 100-150 J/KG OF 0-1
KM AGL SRH E OF CONFLUENCE LINE...AND WIDESPREAD 2000-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE.

..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48999804 48189736 47139791 46580005 46560278 47170311
49000285 48999804

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