SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291550
MEZ000-291815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS INTERIOR MAINE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 291550Z - 291815Z
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK BUOYANCY BUT FAVORABLE
SHEAR...WITH AT LEAST MRGL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. HAIL NEAR
SVR LEVELS ALSO IS POSSIBLE.
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING FIELD OF CU/TCU ACROSS THIS REGION WWD
OVER PORTIONS VT/NH AS INSOLATION DESTABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
MASS. WITH SFC DEW POINTS 60S F AND TEMPS UPPER 70S...RESULT IS
MINIMAL MLCINH AND MLCAPE INCREASING TO 400-800 J/KG...THOUGH LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. CONTINUING SMALL LAPSE RATES
AND LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE WITH WWD EXTENT EACH INDICATE MOST
FAVORED AREA WILL BE IN CORRIDOR NEAR THETAE AXIS...ANALYZED AT 15Z
ROUGHLY FROM SERN NH NNEWD TO CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTY...W OF BOTH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY STABLE MARINE AIR MASS. WLY
COMPONENT OF NEAR-SFC FLOW WILL LIMIT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT AND
HODOGRAPH SIZE. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL MAY BE FAVORABLE
FRO ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 35-45
KT POSSIBLE.
..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
LAT...LON 44717093 45787023 46506948 46566880 46356822 45966783
45686777 44646873 43987010 44057094 44597100 44717093
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