SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291634
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-291900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NC...NRN SC...NRN GA...SERN VA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291634Z - 291900Z
TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY WRN CAROLINAS/NRN GA...AND INVOF
NEAR-SHORE SEA BREEZE...EACH OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS AND ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS.
16Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONTAL ZONE OVER SERN
VA...BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE DIFFUSE WWD OVER SERN KY.
REINFORCING FRONT FROM MID-ATLANTIC ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO
OH VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN N OF AREA WHILE SRN FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN. PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE WAS DRAWN FROM WARREN COUNTY
NC WSWWD TO CHATTOOGA COUNTY GA...DRIFTING SEWD. ANOTHER WEAK
CONFLUENCE LINE WAS EVIDENT NEAR NTU-RWI-CLT LINE...WITH LIGHT/LESS
THAN 10 KT SFC WINDS ON BOTH SIDES. THESE CONFLUENCE LINES...AS
WELL AS STRONGLY-HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD SERVE AS FOCI
SOONEST...WITH CU/TCU ALREADY EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY. SHALLOW BUT
GROWING SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALSO IS NOTED INVOF SEA BREEZE OVER
SERN NC...EXPECTED TO EXPAND/DEEPEN WITH TIME. STG DIABATIC HEATING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...CONTAINING SFC DEW POINTS MID-70S COAST
TO UPPER 60S MOUNTAINS/PIEDMONT...WILL CONTINUE TO REMOVE
MLCINH...WITH MLCAPE RISING TO 2000-3000 J/KG IN MOST AREAS BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WITH TIME...BETWEEN ANTECEDENT
BOUNDARIES...BROADER COLD POOLS FROM ACTIVITY TO E AND W...AND
RELATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THIS AREA
WITH CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION/MAINTENANCE.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR TSTM ORGANIZATION IS WEAKNESS OF KINEMATIC
FIELD...WITH SMALL LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDE FCST TO REMAIN AOB 30 KT MOST AREAS.
..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...
FFC...
LAT...LON 33847796 33927820 33847867 33517921 34037959 34368063
34148165 33748301 34458529 35298355 36058126 36397854
36937630 35837570 34567653 34697668 34617723 34277773
33847796
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