SWODY1
SPC AC 041937
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN WY/NWRN CO HAS NECESSITATED
A NWD-NWWD EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATION
BASINS OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES WEST OF CYS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPERIENCING MARKED STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORT MAX BENEATH STRONG SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS. GIVEN THE
ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE GREATEST RISK BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL SFC
TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUD BASES.
FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CNTRL CO...SWD INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS. WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO THUNDERSTORMS
AND SPREAD ATOP COOLER UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WHERE
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.
..DARROW.. 07/04/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010/
...CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
PERSISTENT WRN TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EWD AS A STRONGER UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES SEWD TOWARD NRN ROCKIES. MID LEVEL IMPULSE ASSOCIATED
WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVING THRU ERN WY THIS AM WHILE UPSTREAM S/W
MOVES EWD ACROSS UT INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING.
MOIST/COOL AIR MASS HAS MOVED SWD THRU CO PLAINS THIS MORNING. WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UT S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COOL POOL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INITIALLY LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOW HEATING BUT BY
LATER AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING THRU THE 70S
SHOULD LEAD TO STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WITH
30-40KT OF SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONTO
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SUPERCELLS.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
TORNADO/LAND SPOUT.
FURTHER N THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ERN WY WILL WEAKEN UPON MOVING INTO
SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE WHERE AIR MASS LACKS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
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