SWODY1
SPC AC 162000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW
ENGLAND...
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST REASONING. ASSORTMENT OF
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING 00Z WRF-NSSL/12Z WRF-NMM/17Z
HRRR...REFLECT RELATIVELY ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NEB/NORTHERN KS.
...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
DEVELOPING/EASTWARD MOVING LINEAR CLUSTERS WILL POSE SOME DAMAGING
WIND RISK MAINLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEE PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
..GUYER.. 07/16/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010/
...WI/MN/IA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES...WHILE A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEB INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY AND PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR IN
THIS REGION IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE WEAK UPPER
FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NUMBER OF STORMS.
...NEB/KS...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN
NEB...WITH A DRYLINE LIKELY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER FAR WESTERN
KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY YIELD AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT NEAR BOTH BOUNDARIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURRING THROUGH THE
DAY. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER
2000 J/KG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED STORMS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...NEW ENGLAND/NY/PA...
A WEAK FRONTAL BAND IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES
TODAY. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F AND SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS MODEST...AND OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
MARGINAL. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STORMS IN THIS REGION MAY BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
...SOUTHEAST...
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MAX HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK...BUT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT VENTING FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS.
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