SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011845
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-011945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT THU JUL 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL ID...SW INTO CNTRL MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011845Z - 011945Z
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME CNTRL/ERN ID INTO SW MT AND EXTREME NW WY.
MODERATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY
SEVERE HAIL/WIND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG HEATING IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS ERN ID AND WRN MT IN THE
WAKE OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH CU DEVELOPING IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS OF 18Z. ADEQUATE MOISTURE /BL DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES /H7-H5 LR AOA 7.5 C/KM/ WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH ML CAPES RISING TO 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO DAYS...A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 40 KTS IN PLACE. GIVEN
THE MODERATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE
FORM OF A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS IS LIKELY.
SOMEWHAT BACKED FLOW CURRENTLY RESIDES E OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR AHEAD
OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS THIS AREA.
..DEAN.. 07/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
LAT...LON 45661476 46361400 47031289 47971136 48891013 49040948
49010836 48900713 48110676 46670716 45790755 45370825
45060874 44890950 44751073 44341158 44271236 44311310
44641380 45251442 45661476
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