MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1199

ACUS11 KWNS 041730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041730
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-041900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...SWRN NEB PANHANDLE...FAR NRN-NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041730Z - 041900Z

ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN WY...SWRN NEB PANHANDLE...AND
FAR NRN-NERN CO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SVR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IS
BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE AS LOW-LEVEL STRATUS ERODES. CONTINUED
SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S
F...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MOIST POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG AS ERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW VEERS TO SWLY IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THESE
SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS S/W TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES THE REGION.
GIVEN STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES AOA 40-50 KT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE POSING A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...INITIAL SVR WEATHER THREAT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OVER
SERN WY. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE SWRN NEB PANHANDLE AND FAR NRN-NERN CO AS LOW CLOUDINESS
DISSIPATES AND INSTABILITY INCREASES.

..GARNER.. 07/04/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 40530560 41710681 42470677 42360447 41230278 40560335
40530560

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