SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081931
COZ000-NMZ000-082030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 081931Z - 082030Z
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
ADJACENT PLAINS OF CO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SVR IS
NOT ANTICIPATED...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING IN THE
PRESENCE OF 40S-50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND EWD OFF THE FRONT
RANGE...AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...E-SELY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERSPREAD BY
MODEST 20 KT MID-LEVEL WLY/S IS RESULTING IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THESE SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL WITH STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES AS STORMS SPREAD EWD OFF THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..GARNER.. 07/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36930526 37260567 38730591 40970561 40960403 38170373
37080419 36930526
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