MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1238

ACUS11 KWNS 101947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101946
NDZ000-102145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101946Z - 102145Z

TSTMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP IN NERN MT AND SRN SASKATCHEWAN.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN ND. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
F HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS NWRN ND. A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD OUT OF CANADA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF STORM
INITIATION. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CINH HAS BEEN ELIMINATED IN
THE REGION OF MAXIMUM SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
NWRN ND. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS IN PLACE...THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

..JIRAK.. 07/10/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48070395 48320336 48570267 48800191 48870131 48920082
48950016 48989934 48969869 48969785 48929745 48799723
48669716 48559722 48479776 48459834 48389887 48289989
47950154 47710230 47610267 47520297 47460322 47480362
48070395

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