MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1239

ACUS11 KWNS 102104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102103
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-102230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SD/SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102103Z - 102230Z

MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL...ACROSS EASTERN SD/SOUTHEAST ND INTO
WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MN.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THIS
VICINITY...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
ENTERING WESTERN WI...AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER FAR EASTERN WY. WITH THAT SAID...A RELATIVELY
VOLATILE AIRMASS/SCENARIO POTENTIALLY EXISTS FROM EASTERN SD INTO
SOUTHEAST ND AND WESTERN/SOUTHWEST MN. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO NEAR
70F...BENEATH A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED PLUME...ARE YIELDING
WEAK INHIBITION WITH MLCAPE VALUES TO 3000-4000 J/KG. WHILE THE
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...A TREND TOWARD INCREASING NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS
NOT NOTED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER
VICINITY...WHERE AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CU IS EVIDENT IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS CONVERGENCE IS AIDED BY A RELATIVE
MAXIMA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS...WITH A PSEUDO/WEAK TRIPLE POINT
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A SURFACE PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND AN
EARLY DAY RAIN-COOLED/WEAK EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT THAT IS ROUGHLY
ORIENTED WNW-ESE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MN. THE WOOD LAKE MN
WIND PROFILER SAMPLES THE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES THAT
CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30-35 KT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WHICH IS
CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES. IN
ALL...CLOSELY MONITORING FOR INCREASING SURFACE BASED SEVERE TSTM
POTENTIAL INCLUDING A TORNADO RISK...AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY PROMPT A TORNADO WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 07/10/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 43719848 46799607 46599495 45719447 44599490 43929627
43719848

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