SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111916
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-112045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN-SERN KS...NRN-WRN OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111916Z - 112045Z
PORTIONS OF SRN-SERN KS...NRN-WRN OK...AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND INCREASING SVR
WEATHER RISK.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 19Z INDICATE SEVERAL CONFLUENT ZONES
EXTENDING GENERALLY SWWD FROM AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IN NERN KS. DIURNAL HEATING ALONG THESE FEATURES IS LEADING TO
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION/DECREASING CINH...WITH A
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH KS/MO S/W TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
AWAY FROM THE REGION...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AIR MASS ALONG PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES IS BECOMING
VERY UNSTABLE...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S F AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70
F...WHICH IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2500
J/KG. IN ADDITION...WITH S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO W-NWLY IN
THE MID-LEVELS...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION POTENTIAL
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AND A WW WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORM
DEVELOPMENT BECOMES APPARENT.
..GARNER.. 07/11/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36440001 37299818 37469661 37029541 36209588 35629742
35159909 34980050 35080109 35350118 35820093 36440001
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