SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122008
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-122145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 122008Z - 122145Z
PORTIONS OF NERN CO...SWRN NEB...AND NWRN KS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SVR WEATHER THREAT. IT IS UNCERTAIN
ATTM WHETHER A WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
CUMULUS FIELD OVER NERN CO/SRN NEB PANHANDLE IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN
ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONGER /40+ KT/ MID-LEVEL NWLY JET.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...60S F DEWPOINTS RESIDE ACROSS MUCH
OF WRN NEB AND KS...WHICH ARE AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW-SE
ORIENTED AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...VWP/S...AND RUC FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE THAT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE S-SE...AND VEERS TO NWLY IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 40 KT...YIELDING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING MORE ROBUST SVR WEATHER THREAT IS WHETHER DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE DEEPER MIXED AIR MASS IN NERN CO CAN
REMAIN SUSTAINED AS THEY APPROACH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER SWRN
NEB/NWRN KS...AT WHICH POINT...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BECOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL.
..GARNER.. 07/12/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40400054 39419981 38240042 38310187 39270315 40510413
41110368 41040187 40400054
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