MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1285

ACUS11 KWNS 131904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131903
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-132030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...NRN GA...SRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464...

VALID 131903Z - 132030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464
CONTINUES.

THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS NE AL...NRN GA...FAR SE TN AND FAR WRN
NC MAY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LINE-SEGMENT MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE REGION. THE THREAT MAY CONTINUE EWD INTO THE WRN PART OF
WW 465 AND SEWD INTO ERN GA WHERE NO WATCH IS IN EFFECT ATTM. A WW
COULD BE NEEDED SOUTHEAST OF WW 464 IF THE LINE TAKES A MORE SEWD
TURN BUT THE WATCH COULD ALSO BE EXTENDED AS WELL.

AN ORGANIZED SHORT LINE-SEGMENT IS ONGOING IN NE AL ALONG THE NRN
EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATED
MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS NE AL. THIS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXTENDS EWD ACROSS NRN GA INTO FAR WRN
NC WHERE SCATTERED DISCRETE CELLS ARE ONGOING. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THE
CONVECTIVE LINE EWD INTO THE ATLANTA METRO WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE NOW
IN THE LOWER 90S F AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP. SHORT-TERM
MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THE LINE EWD ACROSS NCNTRL GA
AND WRN SC WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. FOR THIS
REASON...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE
MAY CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES.. 07/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 33138521 33128647 33028652 33058669 33058692 33188701
33448734 33518725 33578736 33618745 33678744 33698754
33868753 33878762 34298760 34288750 34318711 33948709
33888697 33968686 34158659 34268646 34288657 34518655
34488644 34588636 34818634 34988630 34998595 35258592
35248568 35318558 35228530 35158536 35488509 35318490
35368484 35298469 35318450 35208427 35308401 35218394
35258370 35148375 35008348 34898365 34698361 34668370
34568363 34478370 34388364 34298369 34248345 34098340
33948351 33908361 33748351 33588363 33438370 33358382
33438393 33328403 33358427 33348435 33228447 33208475
33228496 33138521

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