SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132051
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-132215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA...SC...WRN/CNTRL NC...VA...
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466...
VALID 132051Z - 132215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466
CONTINUES.
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW 466 FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL
AND NRN PART OF THE WATCH WILL MOVE ENEWD AND MAY AFFECT JUST NORTH
AND EAST OF THE WATCH ACROSS SRN VA AND CNTRL NC. THE WW MAY NEED TO
BE LOCALLY EXPANDED IN CNTRL NC THIS EVENING.
A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WRN NC IS ONGOING ON THE NWRN EDGE
OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED BY
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY EXTENDS EWD ACROSS CNTRL NC AND NNEWD INTO SRN VA WHICH
ALONG WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE STORMS FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF WW 466 ARE ESTIMATED
AROUND 30 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR EVIDENT
ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH
A BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE. THE GREATER THREAT MAY BECOME DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY IF STORM COVERAGE CAN INCREASE AND A
LINE-SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE POSSIBLY AFFECTING SRN VA AND ECNTRL NC BY
EARLY EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 07/13/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...
FFC...
LAT...LON 37068111 37967897 37877805 37537719 37117700 36217727
35377810 34387961 34048057 33398161 33328222 33658275
33908320 34318373 34938391 35098396 35268425 35568427
35668394 36308263 36628188 36948155 37098092 37068111
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