SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141926
IAZ000-MNZ000-142100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN TROUGH N-CNTRL IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141926Z - 142100Z
WW 472 HAS BEEN EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO REMAINDER OF S-CNTRL MN
TO ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A NEW WW MIGHT
BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF N-CNTRL IA BEFORE 21Z.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WAS LOCATED ACROSS
S-CNTRL MN INTO NWRN IA. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CUMULUS...AND STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED...LIKELY SURFACE
BASED WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
SERN MN. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AND DEEPER
ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MAY
WEAKEN CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD INTO PARTS OF NRN IA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME WHICH WILL
REDUCE HODOGRAPH SIZE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY /4000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AND 40-45 KT BULK
SHEAR...INITIAL THREAT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES.
..DIAL.. 07/14/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43169432 43989380 43959310 42869302 42379363 42379474
43169432
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