SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141930
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-142100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SW IA...CNTRL AND SERN NEB...NRN KS...NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 141930Z - 142100Z
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND A WW MAY BE
NEEDED BY 21Z.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SW MN INTO E CNTRL NEB. CONVERGENCE WAS GENERALLY
WEAK AND DIFFUSE AS OF 19Z...BUT INCREASING NLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DEEP CONVERGENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AN EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN
PLACE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A MODIFIED 19Z
OAX SOUNDING SHOWS MLCAPE AROUND 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 25-30 KT FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE. IN ADDITION...AREA WIND PROFILERS
INDICATE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT...WITH THE STRONGER
FLOW WELL N OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...EXTREMELY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE
INITIATION OCCURS. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS
THE HIGH PW CONTENT WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL. ONCE STORMS CONSOLIDATE...THEY MAY FORWARD
PROPAGATE SEWD WITH A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 07/14/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...
GLD...
LAT...LON 39540060 40480052 41299896 41999797 42229691 42159494
41229449 40159450 39089554 38979765 39039916 39540060
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