SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151938
COZ000-NMZ000-152145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE INTO NERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151938Z - 152145Z
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERALLY WEAK WINDS OVER ERN CO BUT ALSO
LOWERING PRESSURES. AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRESSURE FALLS PERSIST...LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AND INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND 10-15
KTS SFC TO 850 MB. 20-25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER THE
AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER NRN CO. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE
STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...WITH MOST
REPORTS LIKELY TO BE SMALLER.
..JEWELL.. 07/15/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36270544 37290510 37930519 38680498 39230466 39370425
39550380 39660327 39640278 39320250 36570350 36250365
35690402 35820466 36270544
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