SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151947
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-152145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...CNTRL AND ERN IND THROUGH WRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479...
VALID 151947Z - 152145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479
CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH E-CNTRL IL AND CNTRL
THROUGH NRN IND. POTENTIAL STILL EXIST FOR OTHER STORMS TO DEVELOP
FARTHER WEST ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH NERN IL STORMS MOVING TOWARD NWRN
OH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF WW 479 BY 21Z...BUT ANOTHER WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNLESS TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.
THIS AFTERNOON PRE-FRONTAL MULTICELL LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES FROM
E-CNTRL IL THROUGH NRN IND MOVING EAST AT AROUND 20 KT. STRONGEST
ACTIVITY EXISTS FROM EXTREME E-CNTRL IL THROUGH W-CNTRL IND WHERE
MLCAPE IS AROUND 3000 J/KG. STORMS ACROSS NERN IND HAVE SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND AS THEY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AXIS OF HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E AND INSTABILITY.
FARTHER WEST...VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHALLOW CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITING DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE WHICH MAKES
EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN.
..DIAL.. 07/15/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 39358633 39488944 40928898 41688787 41788553 41588384
39658516 39358633
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