SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152148
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-152315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN AR...SRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152148Z - 152315Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS SE MO AND MAY
DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SRN IL AND SWD ACROSS NRN AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THE CONVECTION. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TWO LINE-SEGMENTS IN SRN MO ARE LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT IN A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 4000 J/KG
NEAR FT SMITH TO ABOUT 3000 J/KG NEAR THE MS RIVER IN ERN MO. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING ACROSS THE MCD AREA
WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 2 TO 2.5
INCHES ACROSS SRN MO SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO EXIST.
..BROYLES.. 07/15/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 38088842 37338889 36398951 35679026 35229162 35579364
35819431 36149456 36639448 36929398 37039288 37159164
37399089 38179023 39138946 39058836 38088842
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