SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162025
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-162230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...ERN CO...WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162025Z - 162230Z
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WRN NEB INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS. A WW COULD BECOME
NECESSARY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM SD INTO
WRN NEB AND INTO SERN CO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS ALSO NOTED
OVER E CNTRL CO WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA...ON THE WRN
EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME
DRY ADIABATIC.
ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BY PEAK HEATING. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE MOST
MARGINAL OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE MD AREA...BUT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE
SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KTS OVER NEB. GIVEN PROGGED
INCREASED IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND AND AFTER 00Z...WIND FIELDS
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WW POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND UP ON EXPECTED COVERAGE OF SEVERE.
..JEWELL.. 07/16/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 37590327 38450401 38800376 39170250 39670227 40160252
40540274 41200268 41470224 41490154 40730022 40119995
39159990 38410023 37870099 37510171 37590327
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