SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162041
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-162245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...NWRN IA...SRN MN AND CNTRL WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162041Z - 162245Z
ERN NEB...NWRN IA...SRN MN AND CNTRL WI ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS POSSIBLE...BUT STORM COVERAGE COULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
ZONE OF SHALLOW AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FROM E-CNTRL
NEB NEWD THROUGH NWRN IA AND SRN MN. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH 2000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE.
FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A MODEST INVERSION BETWEEN
700-500 MB WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY AND RAOB DATA
ALSO SHOW VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB ESPECIALLY WITH WRN EXTENT
TOWARD NEB. HEIGHTS ARE ALSO RISING SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EWD. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY INCREASE WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD ANYWHERE FROM ERN NEB INTO SRN MN AND CNTRL
WI. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ALOFT AND WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS DRY
ENTRAINMENT COULD PROVE HOSTILE TO DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS AND COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION.
..DIAL.. 07/16/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 41109851 41979732 43879468 44449034 43759005 43029379
41059618 40419784 41109851
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