SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162049
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-162215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN/SOUTHERN KS TO WESTERN MO AND OK/WESTERN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162049Z - 162215Z
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR
ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO TO OK/WESTERN AR.
MULTIPLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITHIN A WEAKLY CONVERGENT MOIST/STRONGLY UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO TO NORTHERN/EASTERN OK
AND WESTERN AR. REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS ARE INDICATIVE OF
RATHER WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT STRONGER HIGH
LEVEL FLOW WITH 25-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...GIVEN HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT/STRONG BUOYANCY...WILL SUPPORT EPISODIC STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL. SOME UPDRAFT
CONGEALING/LIMITED ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AS STORMS GENERALLY PROPAGATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT A CONVECTIVE
WATCH CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN GIVEN MODEST STORM MOVEMENT AND PWAT VALUES
OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES PER GPS DERIVED DATA.
..GUYER.. 07/16/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
DDC...
LAT...LON 35059343 34289456 35219666 35399966 36679972 37499795
39889487 39479363 36819350 35059343
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