SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262046
NVZ000-262145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL NV
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 262046Z - 262145Z
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NV/CA BORDER IS PROGRESSING
NEWD...INTO A MODERATELY SHEARED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS W CNTRL NV. AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT WILL EXIST...BUT A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MTNS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITED
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
/YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG/. 20Z SFC OBS INDICATE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WHETHER DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN WILL MIX TO
THE SFC THIS AFTERNOON /THEREBY REDUCING THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE GREATEST WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL TO
WRN NV. HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED FARTHER E
/WHICH IS THE SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WRF-HRRR MODEL
RUNS/...A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIST...GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /AROUND
30 KTS AT 500 MB/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KTS.
LARGE SFC T-TD SPREADS OF 30-40 DEG F WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS OUT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS.
..ROGERS.. 07/26/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...VEF...LKN...REV...
LAT...LON 38281791 38991890 39541936 39971954 40291932 40561873
40651817 40421753 40081722 39781696 39441685 39021678
38581678 38211699 37931749 38091771 38281791
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