SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262156
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-262330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 262156Z - 262330Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PARTS OF ERN MT AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AND CNTRL ND THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN MANITOBA SWWD
THROUGH NWRN ND THEN WWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO NERN MT. A
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TROUGH EXTENDS N-S ACROSS EXTREME WRN ND.
WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...STRONG DIABATIC WARMING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN ERN MT TO 60S IN ND SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM
2000-3000 J/KG. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRESTING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE NRN MT SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO NRN ND LATER THIS EVENING. STORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN
MT...IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NERN MT AND NRN ND AND
ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN ND. EFFECTIVE
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40+ KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...RUC PFCS INDICATE MOISTURE DROPS OFF
RAPIDLY ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE ALSO NOT
PARTICULARLY LARGE.
..DIAL.. 07/26/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 48850464 48760109 47880064 46850166 46030314 45270462
45290525 45850532 47120492 48230576 48850464
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