SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272213
SDZ000-NEZ000-280015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB...SERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272213Z - 280015Z
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND MAY DEVELOP LATER
TODAY...AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WATCH.
SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM JUST WEST OF MHE SWWD INTO NWRN
NEB. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WERE RESULTING IN TCU ALONG THIS FRONT. RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS
EXIST JUDGING FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MORNING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
AND THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6.5
C/KM.
STILL...RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH MID TO UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS HAS RESULTED IN MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY. THE AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THANKS TO A
ZONE OF HEATING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THUS...CONTINUED MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY A SWLY LLJ...MAY BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CIN AND RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
..JEWELL.. 07/27/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43149659 42759667 42419677 42019740 41649834 41520050
42100118 42490073 43189910 43459685 43149659
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