SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272223
MIZ000-WIZ000-272330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI THROUGH THE WRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 272223Z - 272330Z
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO NERN WI AND
WRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI THIS EVENING. SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 23Z.
EARLY THIS EVENING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E-CNTRL WI
NWWD THROUGH NRN WI THEN WWD THROUGH CNTRL MN AND SWWD AS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH ERN SD. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THE WARM SECTOR IS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE. STRONGEST STORMS SO FAR HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CNTRL
MN INTO EXTREME NRN WI WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG NOSE OF
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. DESTABILIZATION FARTHER EWD INTO NERN WI AND THE
WRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS
SHIFTS EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD THROUGH MANITOBA AND NERN ND. MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. THE 0-2 KM SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING. THUS THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME AS STORMS
TRACK EWD ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
..DIAL.. 07/27/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 45148874 45688957 46478978 46968881 46678767 45948733
45168775 45148874
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