SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302201
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-302330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN-SERN MO...SWRN IL...FAR WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 302201Z - 302330Z
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXISTS
WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN-SERN MO INTO
SWRN IL AND FAR WRN KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS EWD ACROSS CNTRL MO AND THEN
SEWD INTO SERN MO AT 21Z. HOT SURFACE AIR MASS RESIDES W OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHILE ZONE OF LOWER TO MID 70 F DEWPOINTS EXITS ALONG THE
FRONT. AS A RESULT...STRONG INSTABILITY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED...WITH PRONOUNCED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT EVIDENT ALONG THE MS RIVER. ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE PAST HR
OR SO. IN ADDITION...SVR MCS HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF TURNING SEWD...AND
MAY CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH THE
EVENING. COMBINATION OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVERLAYED BY MODEST 20+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS YIELDING
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF CNTRL MO MCS...POSING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
..GARNER.. 07/30/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 39179157 39259093 38819007 37748913 36998872 36548887
36519023 37509152 38269178 39179157
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