SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302320
NDZ000-310015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ERN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551...
VALID 302320Z - 310015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551
CONTINUES.
AT 23Z...MCS PRODUCING NEAR TO OCCASIONALLY SVR WIND GUSTS IS MOVING
E-SEWD AT 35 KT ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING /PER KLSX
NEXRAD RADAR/ AS IT PROPAGATES ALONG PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
RESIDING ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VERY MOIST SURFACE
CONDITIONS RESIDE ALONG THE FRONT /I.E. LOW TO MID 70 F
DEWPOINTS/...WHILE SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A HOT /90S F
TEMPERATURES/ AIR MASS ALONG THE MCS/S WRN FLANK...RESULTING IN
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...VEERING LOW-MID LEVEL
WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED IN AREA VWP DATA AND RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YIELDING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UPWARDS OF
40 KT...FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SVR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IT IS
UNCERTAIN ATTM WHETHER THE MCS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TURNING SEWD
DOWN THE FRONT INTO SERN MO. IF IT CANNOT...THEN CONTINUED WEAKENING
WOULD BE LIKELY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND E
OF THE MS RIVER. OTHERWISE...MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER SEWD
OVER SERN MO MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND
HAIL.
..GARNER.. 07/30/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 49030305 48010252 47270158 47040086 47029975 47599928
48059945 48419974 48670005 49040060 49030305
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