WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 459

WWUS20 KWNS 121920
SEL9
SPC WW 121920
KSZ000-OKZ000-130300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST OF CHANUTE
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 458...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRESENCE OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND W-E ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS THE
STORMS WITHIN A MOIST...UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG. AREA PROFILER AND VWP DATA INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
THREAT DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOW LCL/LFC
HEIGHTS. STILL...SEASONABLY STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.

...MEAD

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