WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 524

WWUS20 KWNS 232126
SEL4
SPC WW 232126
INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-LEZ000-LMZ000-240500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
FAR NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 525 PM
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BENTON HARBOR MICHIGAN TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DETROIT
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 521...WW 522...WW 523...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ALONG A W-E
ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN LOWER MI.
AMBIENT AIR MASS IS HOT AND QUITE MOIST WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500
J/KG. MOREOVER...AREA VWPS INDICATE A BELT OF STRONG WLY FLOW /I.E.
35-50 KT/ IN THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER WHICH IS RESULTING IN A STRONGLY
SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER ERN IA/NWRN
IL WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS EWD INTO NRN IND LATER THIS EVENING. HERE
TOO...ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG MCS TRACK.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.

...MEAD

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