WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 448

WWUS20 KWNS 102148
SEL8
SPC WW 102148
MNZ000-110400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 450 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
ALEXANDRIA MINNESOTA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ORTONVILLE
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 446...WW 447...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS JUST UNDERWAY NEAR THE
MN/SD/ND BORDER REGION ALONG A NE-SW SURFACE TROUGH. DESPITE
LARGELY NEUTRAL LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING HAVE WEAKENED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MLCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 35
KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION...WHEN
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. CONVECTIVE MODE IS EXPECTED TO TREND MORE TO
CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF STORM MERGERS AND
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS WILL PERSIST.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31015.

...THOMPSON

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