SWODY1
SPC AC 030059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2010
VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION
AND VICINITY...
...MID MO VALLEY REGION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WRN NEB ATTM...WITH A CONVECTIVE
INCREASE POSSIBLE FARTHER E INTO ERN NEB/IA AND VICINITY THIS
EVENING AS 30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. EVENING OAX RAOB
SHOWS FAVORABLY MOIST/VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS FARTHER N...BUT SHEAR APPEARS
SUFFICIENT ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AREA GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT RISK FORECAST.
FARTHER N...ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONGOING WHERE ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
WEAKER INSTABILITY BUT STRONGER SHEAR IS INDICATED. WITH LITTLE
LIKELIHOOD FOR APPRECIABLE EXPANSION IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
EVIDENT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY.
MEANWHILE...STORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING FROM ERN CO EWD INTO NWRN
KS...WHERE VERY WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
INDICATED. HOWEVER...WITH SHEAR GENERALLY TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS...WILL LIKEWISE MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE
THREAT.
..GOSS/JEWELL.. 08/03/2010
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