SWODY1
SPC AC 271612
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010
VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN U.S...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WELL UNDERWAY AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WRN U.S.
AND HEIGHTS RISE IN THE EAST. THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THRU
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS
THRU THE PERIOD. THE FRONT TRAILS BACK INTO NRN UT/NV BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE IT STALLS AS TROUGH DEEPENS SEWD ALONG W COAST.
MONSOONAL PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS NWD FROM AZ THRU UT AHEAD OF
FRONTAL ZONE THIS AM AND WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA THRU THE PERIOD
AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE/BACK ACROSS NV/UT BY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING W COAST TROUGH.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EWD ACROSS AZ WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH TUS/PHX
SOUNDINGS QUITE MOIST WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION CENTRAL AZ
PERSISTING AND LIKELY INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF AZ WHERE
AIR MASS BECOMES MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 2000
J/KG AS VALLEY TEMPS WARM THRU THE 80S. WHILE SHEAR IS
WEAK...CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS WILL SUPPORT BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS
THRU THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER N ACROSS UT INTO SWRN WY...WHILE MOISTURE IS LESS...LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEPER AND SHEAR IS STRONGER. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN MONSOONAL
PLUME WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NRN UT INTO SWRN WY WHERE SHEAR IS GREATER.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SHEAR DOES INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS TO THE W...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN UT/SWRN WY. HOWEVER LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
..HALES/HURLBUT.. 08/27/2010
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