SWODY1
SPC AC 170030
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
EVOLVED ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES ALONG
THE WY/CO BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY IS AIDED IN LARGE PART BY A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A VORT CENTER LOCATED NEAR EVW IN
SWRN WY. WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE IT APPEARS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS AFTER DARK AND THIS
SHOULD ENCOURAGE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS SRN NEB
INTO PARTS OF KS. ADDITIONALLY...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER NIGHT ACROSS NCNTRL OK/CNTRL KS WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO THIS PART OF THE PLAINS. EVEN
SO...INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED THIS EVENING...CONTAINED PRIMARILY TO THE HIGH
PLAINS.
...DELMARVA TO NEW ENGLAND...
A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LINGER ALONG THE
PA/MD BORDER...SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. AHEAD OF
THIS ACTIVITY...A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE
OVERTURNED FROM NRN VA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
CURRENTLY EXCEED 1500 J/KG. AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION IS LIKELY
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL TRENDS ARE DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING. FOR THIS REASON
WILL ONLY MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WITH
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DARROW.. 08/17/2010
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